China Internet Sector: Diverging Q2 Results Ahead

  • China Internet Sector: Diverging Q2 Results Ahead. Starting this week, U.S.- and Hong Kong-listed Chinese ADRs are entering a heavy earnings release cycle. Goldman Sachs expects a further divergence in Q2 results among China’s internet giants: Tencent and Bilibili are likely to maintain solid growth. The intensifying food-delivery price war could significantly weigh on Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan profits. Gaming and mobility are expected to be the bright spots, with key names including Tencent, NetEase, Bilibili, and DiDi.

  • AI & Cloud Computing Remain Core Growth Engines. Goldman forecasts Alibaba Cloud revenue growth accelerating to +23% YoY, driven by surging AI inference demand. However, heightened competition is expected to drag Alibaba’s net profit down –16% YoY in Q2. At the application layer, Tencent stands to benefit from its WeChat ecosystem and enhanced adtech capabilities, supporting dual growth drivers from gaming and advertising.

  • Competitive Pressures May Ease After Q3. Under government “anti-involution” policy guidance, Goldman expects peak competition in e-commerce and instant delivery to subside by September (end of Q3). While near-term pain is unavoidable, Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan are viewed as deep value plays at current levels.

  • Morgan Stanley believes Alibaba’s recent earnings pressure is largely priced in. Its execution in food delivery and instant retail has exceeded expectations, and accelerating AI-driven cloud growth could act as a share price catalyst.

  • For Meituan, although facing market share erosion and margin headwinds, it remains a long-term winner. JD.com’s early growth momentum is fading, with the risk of becoming a smaller, loss-making player if competitive pressures persist.

  • Morgan Stanley reiterates Tencent (0700.HK) as its top sector pick, raising its target price to HK$650. Q2 revenue is projected to grow +11% YoY to RMB 179 billion. Adjusted net profit is expected to rise +8.8% YoY to RMB 62.4 billion. Gaming revenue could surge +16% YoY, fueled by the hit mobile title Delta Force: Hawk Ops, a rebound in legacy titles, and the August 19 launch of Valorant Mobile. AI-enhanced ad systems are improving ROI, and the rapid monetization of Video Accounts is likely to push ad revenue up +17% YoY.

  • While Pinduoduo (PDD.US) has avoided the subsidy war in food delivery, easing domestic competition pressure, it has increased merchant support through fee waivers and other initiatives—significantly squeezing near-term margins. In overseas markets, Temu has adjusted its U.S. business model and optimized marketing. Its fully-managed U.S. service was paused in May–June, with gradual resumption in July. Goldman expects Temu’s losses to narrow sharply.

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Earnings Calendar

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Tips for Earnings Preview

How to deal with earnings volatility for your holding stocks?

  • When holding profitable stocks ahead of their earnings reports, investors may be concerned about potential profit reduction due to a decline in stock prices post-earnings. In such cases, instead of immediately selling the stocks, investors can consider buying put options to form a "stock + protective put option" combination. If the stock price falls after the result, the increase in the put option price partially hedges the decline in the stock price. Once the stock price reaches the strike price of the put option, the stock will be sold through exercising the option, thereby realizing profit-taking or limiting losses on the stock.

  • When holding profitable stocks and willing to take profits, investors can also utilize options for profit-taking. By selling covered calls, investors can not only take profits on the stock but also earn additional option premium income. Specifically, selling call options equal to the number of shares held to form a "covered call" combination. It's important to set the strike price for selling the call option at a level where you are willing to take profits on the stock (usually above the current stock price). If the stock rises to the strike price of the option on the expiration date, it will be sold through exercising the option, and as the option seller, you receive the option premium. With the upcoming earnings season, due to the increase in implied volatility of options, option premiums are usually quite substantial.

  • Combining the above two strategies, investors can also adopt a strategy that combines both: the Collar strategy, which involves a "stock + sell covered call + buy protective put option" combination. The Collar strategy combines the downside protection of protective put options and the profit potential of covered call options. The premium received from selling covered call options can be used to offset the cost of buying protective put options, resulting in a costless hedged combination of options.

Goldman Sachs recommends straddle option strategy for April earnings season

Straddle options are commonly used to speculate on earnings because it's a non-directional strategy, involving buying both call and put options. As long as the stock price moves significantly, the gains on one side cover the costs on both sides and generate additional profits.

Goldman Sachs once again recommends straddle options for the upcoming earnings season. Goldman Sachs has released a list of 20 companies, believing that investors are underestimating the earnings day volatility of these targets.

Strategies for limited upside movement

If you think a stock has already risen a lot and it won't rise much further, how can you do? Utilize the limited upside strategy recommended by UBS, known as a Call Spread. This involves buying one call option and then selling another call option with the same expiration date but a higher strike price, forming a Buy Call + Sell Call strategy. Essentially, this strategy bets on a limited increase in stock price. The premium earned from selling the call option partially offsets the premium paid for buying the call option, reducing the overall cost of the position. Additionally, this combination helps lower the margin requirement in practice.

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